True MarginLogin

Predict margin leaks before they hit the books.

True Margin reads current-week operating signals, forecasts pre-close loss, explains the cause, and tells each team what to do next.

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Pre-close margin forecast

Week ending May 24, 2025

Forecasted margin-$425Kvs plan -$1.18M
!
$425K forecasted lossDriven by price erosion in Midwest and freight inflation

The problem

The books explain losses after the damage is done.

POS, invoices, inventory, bank feeds, labor, recipes, and manager context move all week. Bookkeeping usually reconciles them too late.

POS sales

  • 2,175.36
  • 1,542.18
  • 1,089.24

Invoices

  • 3,250.00
  • 1,875.00
  • 950.00

Inventory

  • 4,120.00
  • 2,730.50
  • 1,560.25

Bank feeds

  • 2,913.44
  • 1,207.55
  • (320.00)

Labor

  • 128.75
  • 97.50
  • 86.25

Manager context

  • Promotions
  • Staffing changes
  • Waste notes

Month-end report

Profit & loss

Month ended May 31

Sales
$128,720
COGS
$56,345
Labor
$28,415
Operating expenses
$18,220
Net profit
$25,740
Margin
20.0%
Too lateAfter the month is over.
True Margin

Predictive margin loop

The loop runs before close.

A continuous cycle that predicts risk, closes gaps, and guides the right actions before they impact your numbers.

1

Read current-week signals.

Ingests operational, commercial, and market signals across your systems.

2

Forecast margin leakage.

Quantifies likely impact by driver, customer, product, and period.

3

Ask for missing context.

Finds confidence gaps and asks the right owners for the missing detail.

4

Recommend approved actions.

Prioritizes high-impact actions aligned to policy, capacity, and strategy.

Example recommendation

Every recommendation shows the upside and the risk.

True Margin quantifies the full financial impact, backed by your data, so you can act with confidence.

  • Fact-based. Grounded in your actual sales, cost, and operational data.
  • Transparent. See the evidence, the math, and the assumptions.
  • Balanced. Understand why it is good and why it could be bad.

Tuna margin leak from supplier price increase and portion drift

Identified May 12, 2025 • Impacted SKUs: 14 • Last 13 weeks

Risk levelMedium

Finding

Rising tuna costs from the supplier combined with portion drift are eroding contribution margin on affected menu items.

Evidence

Supplier price increased 18.7%, average portion size is up 9.6%, and impacted items represent 21% of tuna sales dollars.

Calculation

-$0.38 price impact + -$0.29 portion drift = -$0.67 per unit x 280,000 units = +$187,400 annualized impact.

Recommended action

Renegotiate tuna pricing with supplier and tighten portioning to standard. Target completion in 30 days.

Why this is good

  • Recovers $187K in annualized margin
  • Improves menu price competitiveness
  • Strengthens cost discipline and consistency

Why this could be bad

  • Supplier may push back on pricing
  • Operational friction during rollout
  • Guests may notice smaller portions

Expert layers

A controller team inside one loop.

True Margin connects every financial function so your numbers stay accurate, decisions stay clear, and the business keeps moving.

01

Controller

Sets the variance policy and decides what needs attention before close.

Reads
Accrual gaps, plan variance, close risk
Produces
Owner memo and escalation path
02

Operator

Turns the forecast into site-level decisions while the week is still live.

Reads
Sales mix, labor, waste, service notes
Produces
Manager follow-up list
03

Bookkeeper

Prepares the support packet so the close starts with fewer open questions.

Reads
Invoices, bank feeds, accrual support
Produces
Bookkeeper packet
04

Procurement

Separates vendor cost movement from usage and portion drift.

Reads
Supplier moves, contract leakage
Produces
Vendor action queue
05

Inventory

Connects counts, transfers, and theoretical usage to margin movement.

Reads
Counts, transfers, shrink, recipes
Produces
Usage exceptions
06

Labor

Shows when schedule choices are creating or protecting contribution margin.

Reads
Hours, overtime, productivity by site
Produces
Schedule changes
07

Audit

Keeps every recommendation tied to evidence, approval, and outcome.

Reads
Approvals, exceptions, control trail
Produces
Decision history

Vertical playbooks

Restaurants first. Operators next.

True Margin delivers pre-close margin forecasts purpose-built for how your business runs.

True Margin

The universal loop

Operations data+Finance data+Manager contextPre-close forecast
01

Restaurants

Multi-location complexity. Real-time shifts. Tight margins.

02

Hotels

Departments. Seasonality. Labor intensity.

03

Linen services

Volume swings. Route economics.

04

Clinics

Payer mix. Staffing. Supply costs.

05

Convenience stores

High SKU velocity. Thin per-item margins.

06

Small manufacturers

WIP complexity. Material volatility.

True Margin

Run a pre-close forecast in the demo workspace.

Experience True Margin with real scenarios and see how clarity at pre-close leads to better outcomes.

Owner memo

Pre-close forecast overview

This memo summarizes the current forecast for the period, highlighting key drivers, risks, and the latest outlook versus plan.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue forecasted at $24.8M, down 1.2% vs plan
  • Gross margin expected to improve 80 bps
  • Operating expenses tracking $0.4M under plan

Financial summary

MetricForecastPlanVariance
Revenue$24.8M$25.1M(1.2%)
Gross margin36.5%35.7%+0.8pp
Operating expenses$8.7M$9.1M(4.4%)
Operating income$0.9M$0.6M+0.3M